Cardinals vs Blue Jays Picks and Odds – September 13, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on September 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of a competitive stretch without playoff implications. The Blue Jays hold a record of 69-78, while the Cardinals sit at 74-72, indicating an average season for St. Louis and a below-average one for Toronto.

In their last outings, the Blue Jays faced the New York Mets, suffering a 6-2 defeat, while the Cardinals enjoyed a more favorable result, defeating the Cincinnati Reds 6-1. This will be the first game in the series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum.

Toronto is projected to start Kevin Gausman, who has been solid this season with a 12-11 record and a 4.09 ERA. However, his 4.87 xERA suggests he might have gotten a bit lucky this year. Gausman typically pitches around 6.0 innings and is expected to allow 2.4 earned runs on average today. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, which could be problematic against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 12th in team batting average.

On the other side, St. Louis will counter with Erick Fedde, who has an impressive 3.39 ERA but a higher 4.23 xFIP, indicating potential regression. Fedde’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, and he too has had difficulty with hits and walks.

Interestingly, betting markets see this matchup as close, with Toronto having a slight edge according to the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a 57% chance to win. The projections suggest the Blue Jays will score an average of 4.23 runs, while the Cardinals are projected for 3.87 runs. Given the recent form of both offenses, the Blue Jays may have the upper hand in capitalizing on any mistakes made by Fedde, making this an intriguing matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Erick Fedde has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Paul Goldschmidt has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.7% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has relied on his non-fastballs 7.4% less often this season (41.8%) than he did last season (49.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last year’s 92.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+13.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.40 Units / 60% ROI)
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Pedro Pages has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)