Brewers vs Cubs Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 7/24/24

Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs are set to host the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field on July 24, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Cubs, currently sitting at 49-54, are having a below-average season and will look to rebound after a narrow 1-0 loss to the Brewers on July 23. The Brewers, on the other hand, boast a solid 58-43 record and have been one of the better teams in the National League Central this year.

Justin Steele will take the mound for the Cubs. Steele, a lefty, has been a bright spot in an otherwise lackluster season for Chicago. Ranked as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, Steele has a stellar 3.07 ERA, although his 3.60 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate. Despite his solid numbers, Steele’s 2-4 record is indicative of his struggles with run support. He’s projected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs on average, which bodes well for the Cubs if their offense can step up.

The Brewers will counter with left-hander Rob Zastryzny. Zastryzny is not expected to go deep into the game, projecting just 2.9 innings pitched. With an average projection of 1.4 earned runs allowed, Milwaukee’s bullpen will likely play a crucial role. The Brewers’ bullpen ranks 22nd according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, and they will need to hold strong to give their team a chance.

Offensively, the Cubs have been struggling, ranking 20th in MLB. Their batting average and home runs are both in the bottom third of the league. However, they do rank 9th in stolen bases, which could be a factor if they can get on base. Ian Happ has been their standout hitter this season, but the Cubs will need contributions from across the lineup to overcome their offensive woes.

The Brewers’ offense, on the other hand, ranks 8th overall and excels in batting average (5th) and stolen bases (2nd). While they lack power, ranking 20th in home runs, their ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities has been a key to their success.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Cubs are favored with a 57% projected win probability, aligning with their implied odds. The Brewers, despite their better season record, enter as underdogs with a 43% projected chance of victory. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, expect a tight contest, potentially decided by which team can capitalize on their scoring opportunities.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-145)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 92 games (+7.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 games (+13.45 Units / 24% ROI)