Braves vs Twins Best Bets and Expert Picks – Monday August 26, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 26, 2024, both teams come into this game with something to prove. The Twins, currently sitting at 72-58, are having a solid season and will look to bounce back after a narrow 3-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on August 25. Meanwhile, the Braves stand at 70-60 and are coming off a disappointing 5-1 defeat at the hands of the Washington Nationals.

This matchup is particularly intriguing as it features two starting pitchers with contrasting profiles. Bailey Ober of the Twins, ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable 12-5 record and a 3.54 ERA this season. His last outing saw him pitch 6 innings with 3 earned runs, indicating a potential for improvement. Ober, who tends to allow a high number of hits (projected 4.6 today), faces a Braves offense that, despite being ranked 13th overall, is known for its power, ranking 10th in home runs.

Max Fried, on the other hand, is an elite left-handed pitcher, rated 9th in MLB, with a 7-7 record and a 3.57 ERA. His last start was impressive, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs. The projections suggest that the Braves may have a slight edge in this game, projecting them to score 4.70 runs against the Twins’ 4.04.

This contest is the first in a series between these two teams, and given the close moneyline odds (-115 for the Twins and -105 for the Braves), it promises to be a competitive affair. Expect both teams to come out swinging as they look to gain momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Max Fried’s 2217-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 24th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Matt Olson is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s matchup, Jarred Kelenic is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+175/-230)
  Bailey Ober has recorded 17.5 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Bats such as Matt Wallner with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Max Fried who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.307 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .324 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+12.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 120 games (+31.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+9.20 Units / 25% ROI)