Braves vs Reds Bets and Betting Trends – 9/19/24

Atlanta Braves

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on September 19, 2024, the two teams find themselves on opposite ends of the standings spectrum. The Reds, with a 74-79 record, have had a below-average season, while the Braves, sitting at 82-70, are enjoying an above-average campaign. The Braves are also coming off a decisive 7-1 victory over the Reds on September 18, which further solidifies their position as favorites in this matchup.

The pitching matchup features Julian Aguiar for the Reds and Chris Sale for the Braves. Aguiar, ranked as the 250th best starting pitcher in MLB, has struggled this season with a 4.88 ERA and a concerning 5.85 xFIP, suggesting potential regression. In contrast, Sale is ranked 8th, boasting an impressive 2.35 ERA. Aguiar’s high fly-ball rate could spell trouble against a Braves lineup that ranks 6th in home runs.

Offensively, the Reds have an average ranking, sitting 16th overall, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd. However, their batting average is a dismal 26th. Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense is slightly better, ranked 14th, with a strong power game backed by their 6th-place ranking in home runs. Yet, their ability to steal bases is nearly non-existent, ranking 29th.

In terms of bullpen support, the Braves hold a significant edge, ranking 9th in the Power Rankings compared to the Reds’ 25th. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, see the Braves as big favorites with a 61% win probability, while the Reds are projected at 39%. With Chris Sale on the mound and a powerful lineup, the Braves are well-positioned to capitalize on Aguiar’s vulnerabilities and continue their push toward postseason play.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Compared to the average starter, Chris Sale has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 7.5 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Michael Harris II hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Julian Aguiar – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  As a result of his large platoon split, Julian Aguiar will benefit from matching up with 7 bats in the projected lineup who bat from the same side in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ty France – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Ty France’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 88.5-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 85.1-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Luke Maile, Blake Dunn).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games at home (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 124 games (+24.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Whit Merrifield – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+10.50 Units / 38% ROI)