Braves vs Phillies Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, August 31, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on August 31, 2025, they are certainly looking to capitalize on their strong season, currently holding a record of 79-57. In contrast, the Braves are struggling at 61-75, marking a disappointing campaign for the team. The Phillies are coming off a game where they showcased their dominance, winning decisively and further solidifying their position in the National League East.

Jesus Luzardo is projected to take the mound for the Phillies. Luzardo, ranked as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, holds a solid 12-6 record this year, although his 4.23 ERA indicates some luck was not on his side. He is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, which is a bit above average. Opposing him is Hurston Waldrep, whose 0.90 ERA over five starts has been bolstered by some good fortune, as indicated by his higher 3.70 xFIP. Waldrep’s projected performance suggests he may struggle, as he’s expected to pitch just 4.7 innings while giving up about 3.0 earned runs.

On the offensive side, the Phillies rank 6th in MLB, with a powerful lineup that is 3rd in team batting average. In contrast, the Braves rank 14th overall, with a below-average 19th in batting average, indicating a significant mismatch. The Phillies’ strong offense, combined with Luzardo’s above-average performance, gives them a clear edge in this matchup.

As it stands, the Phillies are favored at a moneyline of -150, reflecting their strong implied team total of 4.89 runs. This suggests confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Braves’ struggles, making them a team to back in this high-stakes encounter.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Hurston Waldrep – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Tallying 18 outs per outing this year on average, Hurston Waldrep places him the 95th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Ozzie Albies is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider rate has risen by 8.9% from last year to this one (29.2% to 38.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  J.T. Realmuto has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-165)
  The 2nd-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 87 games (+18.51 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)