Braves vs Padres Betting Guide – 7/13/24

Atlanta Braves

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves will face off on July 13, 2024, at Petco Park in the second game of their series. The Braves took the first game with a convincing 6-1 victory, showcasing their strong season with a 52-41 record. The Padres, sitting at 49-48, are having an average season and will look to bounce back.

San Diego will send Dylan Cease to the mound, who has been a bright spot this year, despite his 7-8 record. Cease’s 4.21 ERA is misleading, as his 3.26 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Cease to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 7.8 batters, which is a great strikeout projection. However, he also projects to allow 4.4 hits and 1.8 walks, which are concerning peripherals.

The Braves will counter with Reynaldo Lopez, who boasts an impressive 1.71 ERA and a 7-2 record. However, his 3.81 xFIP indicates he might have been fortunate so far. Lopez is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs with just 4.2 strikeouts. His projections for 5.0 hits and 1.6 walks could spell trouble against a Padres offense ranked 2nd in batting average and 11th in home runs.

Offensively, the Padres are led by Jurickson Profar, who has been consistent with a .307 batting average and 14 home runs. Jake Cronenworth has been hot over the last week, batting .300 with a .833 OPS. The Braves’ Marcell Ozuna has been on fire, hitting .357 with four home runs and a 1.224 OPS over the past week, adding to his season totals of 26 home runs and a .301 batting average.

The Padres’ bullpen ranks 11th, while the Braves’ bullpen is 7th, giving the Braves a slight edge in relief pitching. Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Padres holding a slight edge at -130 and an implied win probability of 54%. THE BAT X projects the Padres as favorites with a 57% win probability, suggesting that San Diego might be a solid pick to even the series.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-180/+140)
  Reynaldo Lopez’s 2063-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 126-rpm drop off from last year’s 2189-rpm rate.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Jarred Kelenic is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+120)
  The 4th-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Compared to the average starter, Dylan Cease has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 10.0 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Jurickson Profar has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.1-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres hitters jointly rank 25th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 81 games (+28.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)