Braves vs Guardians Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 8/17/2025

Atlanta Braves

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians host the Atlanta Braves on August 17, 2025, in a significant Interleague matchup. Both teams come off contrasting performances, with the Guardians looking to bounce back after a disappointing 10-1 loss to the Braves in their last game. The Guardians sit at 63-59, exhibiting an above-average season, while the Braves struggle with a record of 55-68, marking a particularly poor year for them.

On the mound, Cleveland is set to start Logan Allen, a left-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season with a 7-9 record and a solid ERA of 3.94. While Allen ranks 234th among starting pitchers, indicating he is among the lower tier in MLB, his recent performance suggests potential for a stronger outing. In his last start on August 12, he pitched well, allowing just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

Conversely, Atlanta counters with Erick Fedde, who has had an even tougher time, boasting a 4-12 record and an ERA of 5.40. Fedde also ranks poorly among MLB pitchers and struggled in his last outing, giving up 4 earned runs over 5 innings on August 9.

Offensively, the Guardians are 28th in MLB in overall offensive ranking and dead last in team batting average. However, they possess a slightly better power profile, ranking 19th in home runs. The Braves, while averaging a middle-of-the-pack offense overall (14th best), have shown some weaknesses, especially with a 27th ranking in stolen bases.

This matchup promises to be competitive, as the betting lines indicate a tight contest with the Guardians slightly favored at -115. Given the Guardians’ strong bullpen, currently ranked 7th, they may have the edge if the game is close late. With both pitchers having significant upside and weaknesses, this game could hinge on which lineup capitalizes on their respective opportunities.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Throwing 93 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Erick Fedde checks in at the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#2-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 7th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Logan Allen’s four-seam fastball utilization has fallen by 13.8% from last season to this one (48.3% to 34.5%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Daniel Schneemann has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+7.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Erick Fedde has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 62% ROI)