Braves vs Dodgers Betting Guide – 3/31/25

Atlanta Braves

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Atlanta Braves at Dodger Stadium on March 31, 2025, marking the start of a new series between these two National League rivals. Currently, the Dodgers are riding high with a perfect 5-0 record this season, showcasing their elite talent, while the Braves are struggling at 0-4, looking to find their footing.

In their last outings, the Dodgers secured a convincing 7-3 victory on March 29, extending their winning streak, while the Braves suffered a shutout loss, falling 5-0, indicating a rough start to their campaign. The Dodgers’ offense ranks as the 2nd best in MLB, scoring at will, and they’ll be looking to capitalize on their powerful lineup against Braves’ starting pitcher Grant Holmes, who has yet to find his rhythm this season.

Tyler Glasnow, projected to start for Los Angeles, is rated as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, making him a tough matchup for the Braves. Glasnow’s recent performance included 7 innings pitched with only 2 earned runs in his last outing, proving he can handle pressure well. On the other hand, Grant Holmes, despite an impressive 0.00 ERA, has struggled with consistency, starting no games this season and having a poor track record against high-strikeout offenses like the Dodgers.

With the Dodgers heavily favored, holding a moneyline of -225, they boast an implied team total of 4.77 runs, while the Braves sit at a mere 3.23 runs. Given the current trends and matchups, expect the Dodgers to use their offensive power to push their winning streak to six games.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  In his previous game started, Grant Holmes was firing on all cylinders and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Since the start of last season, Marcell Ozuna’s flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 99th percentile at 98.2 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Tallying 18.3 outs per start since the start of last season on average, Tyler Glasnow ranks in the 96th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  As it relates to his home runs, Andy Pages has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 17.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.5.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-220)
  The best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 76 games (+25.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 150 games (+39.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Andy Pages has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 71% ROI)