Blue Jays vs Royals Picks and Odds – September 19, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 19, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Royals, with a record of 76-77, are having an average season and are not contending for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Blue Jays boast an impressive 89-64 record, marking them as one of the top teams in the league.

In their last outings, the Royals lost to the Blue Jays by a score of 2-0, while the Blue Jays were shut out 4-0 in their previous game against another opponent. This matchup also features a notable pitching duel, as Michael Lorenzen is set to start for the Royals, while Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Blue Jays. Lorenzen, who has struggled this season with a 5-11 record and an ERA of 4.91, is ranked as the 194th best starting pitcher in MLB. He had a rough outing in his last start, allowing six earned runs in just three innings. On the other hand, Scherzer, with a 5-3 record and an ERA of 4.31, is considered above average, ranked 70th among starting pitchers. His last appearance was more promising, as he limited his opponent to just two earned runs over five innings.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have the 3rd best offense in MLB, bolstered by a league-leading team batting average. In contrast, the Royals’ offense ranks as the 23rd best, struggling particularly in home runs, where they rank 25th. This mismatch could favor Scherzer, a high-flyball pitcher, against a Royals lineup that has managed only 148 home runs this season, the 6th least in MLB.

With the game total set at 9.0 runs, bettors might consider taking the Blue Jays to cover the spread given their stronger overall performance and the projections that suggest a high-scoring affair.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (44.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.247) suggests that Andres Gimenez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .207 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (59.9% compared to 51.7% last year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Carter Jensen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Carter Jensen is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kansas City Royals hitters as a group have been one of the best in baseball this year (6th-) when it comes to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 91 of their last 150 games (+26.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-140)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 119 games (+19.74 Units / 13% ROI)
• Carter Jensen – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Carter Jensen has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)