Blue Jays vs Orioles Betting Guide – 7/30/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

On July 30, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what promises to be an intriguing American League East matchup. The Orioles are coming off a tightly contested win against the Blue Jays, edging them 3-2 in yesterday’s game. With their current record sitting at 50-58, the Orioles are struggling this season, while the Blue Jays boast a strong 63-46 record, positioning them among the league’s elite.

Dean Kremer is slated to take the mound for the Orioles. Although he ranks as the 138th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Kremer’s performance has been inconsistent. He has a Win/Loss record of 8-7 and an ERA of 4.23, which is above average but still raises concerns given his projected performance today. He tends to struggle with allowing hits, projected to give up 6.1 hits and 1.5 walks on average, which could be problematic against a powerful Blue Jays lineup.

On the other hand, Jose Berrios will start for Toronto. While Berrios has a solid ERA of 3.83, his xERA of 4.56 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season. However, his last outing was promising, as he managed to limit damage to just 2 earned runs over 6 innings. Berrios is not expected to pitch deep into the game, as projections indicate he will only last about 4.9 innings.

The Blue Jays rank as the 5th best offense in MLB and lead the league in batting average, giving them a significant edge. In contrast, the Orioles’ offense sits at a mid-tier 14th overall. With the odds slightly favoring the Orioles at -120, bettors might find value in backing the Blue Jays, considering their superior lineup and recent performance. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  This year, Jose Berrios has introduced a new pitch to his pitch mix (a slider), throwing it on 27% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)
  Ernie Clement is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Dean Kremer conceded a staggering 5 earned runs in his last GS.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Dylan Carlson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Dylan Carlson has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 93.5-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 85 games (+13.58 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 106 games (+15.89 Units / 12% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+4.95 Units / 12% ROI)