Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets
(-105/-115)-135
As the New York Mets prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 4, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in an interleague matchup. The Mets currently hold a 3-3 record, suggesting an average season thus far, while the Blue Jays are off to a strong start at 5-2, marking them as a team to watch.
In their last game, the Mets showcased their struggles, with their offense ranking just 39th in MLB, a stark contrast to the Blue Jays’ 17th place ranking. While the Mets have had some bright spots, including their best hitter’s recent performance with 8 RBIs over the last week, their overall offensive output remains concerning, particularly in the home run department where they rank 29th.
Pitching could play a crucial role in this matchup. Tylor Megill is projected to take the mound for the Mets. With a Win/Loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.80, he has shown promise. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat lucky this season, as indicated by his 3.59 xERA, which is significantly higher than his current ERA. On the other side, Kevin Gausman, also with a 1-0 record, carries a solid 3.00 ERA. He is expected to pitch slightly longer than Megill, with projections suggesting he could average 5.6 innings.
Despite their strong start, the Blue Jays are facing challenges in home runs and stolen bases, which could play a factor against the Mets’ subpar offense. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tightly contested matchup. With a moneyline of -130 for the Mets, betting markets indicate a belief in their ability to edge out the Blue Jays in what promises to be an exciting game at Citi Field.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Kevin Gausman (36.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in New York’s projected lineup.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
New York Mets Insights
- Tylor Megill – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Tylor Megill in the 86th percentile among all SPs in the league.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Extreme flyball hitters like Starling Marte generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kevin Gausman.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-135)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 118 games (+20.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+3.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (+140/-180)Kevin Gausman has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 30% ROI)