Betting Trends for Yankees vs Twins Game – 9/16/25

New York Yankees

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Minnesota Twins

On September 16, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the New York Yankees at Target Field for the second game of their series. The Twins are having a rough season with a record of 66-84, while the Yankees are performing well at 83-67. The Yankees are currently the 1st best offense in MLB, boasting an impressive 254 home runs this season. In contrast, the Twins rank 16th in offense, with a subpar team batting average that places them 22nd overall.

In their last matchup, the Yankees showcased their power with a dominant performance, leaving the Twins looking to rebound. Today, the Twins are projected to start Zebby Matthews, who has had an inconsistent year with a 4-5 record and a troubling ERA of 5.06. Despite his above-average 3.63 xFIP, he projects to pitch only 4.6 innings and allow around 2.7 earned runs on average. However, Matthews possesses a high strikeout rate (26.2 K%), which could play to his advantage against the Yankees’ high-strikeout offense.

On the mound for the Yankees is Cam Schlitter, who holds a solid ERA of 3.05 but has been somewhat fortunate this season, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 3.74. Schlitter’s projection shows he may struggle as well, allowing around 2.5 earned runs while pitching an average of 4.8 innings.

Given the Yankees’ powerful lineup and the Twins’ lackluster performance this season, the Yankees enter this game as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165. Meanwhile, the Twins are considered underdogs at +145, with projections estimating their team total around 3.98 runs. With the Yankees’ offense firing on all cylinders, they have a significant edge, but Matthews’ ability to strike out batters could keep the game competitive.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Among all starters, Cameron Schlittler’s fastball velocity of 97.3 mph ranks in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.415) may lead us to conclude that Ben Rice has experienced some negative variance this year with his .348 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Yankees hitters as a group rank in MLB for power this year when using their 11.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Zebby Matthews is projected to throw 80 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Matt Wallner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Kody Clemens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+13.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)