Betting Trends for Yankees vs Red Sox Game – 9/13/25

New York Yankees

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face off against the New York Yankees on September 13, 2025, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Both teams are in close contention for playoff spots in the American League East, with the Yankees leading the division at 82-65, while the Red Sox sit just behind at 81-67. In their previous matchup, the Yankees secured a victory, intensifying the rivalry as they meet again for the second game of this series.

Brayan Bello is set to take the mound for the Red Sox. He has had an above-average season, posting an 11-6 record with a respectable ERA of 3.12. However, his projections indicate some potential struggles today, with an average of 5.3 hits and 3.0 earned runs allowed projected. While Bello ranks as the 83rd best starter in MLB, facing a potent Yankees lineup that leads the league in home runs (250) could be a challenging task.

On the other side, the Yankees will start Max Fried, who has been nothing short of elite this season. With a 16-5 record and a stellar ERA of 3.02, Fried’s advanced stats suggest he’s been a key asset for New York. His projection of allowing just 2.2 earned runs today highlights his effectiveness, although he does face a Red Sox offense that ranks 8th overall in MLB.

The Yankees’ bats have been especially hot recently, with their best hitter showcasing a 1.500 OPS over the last week, signaling a strong offensive performance heading into this matchup. Meanwhile, Boston’s offense, while solid, will need to find ways to break through Fried’s elite pitching. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations of a competitive contest, with Boston currently listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +115.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Max Fried has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-150)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup grades out as the best on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Brayan Bello’s sinker percentage has decreased by 6.3% from last season to this one (40.3% to 34%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 9.9% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 87 games (+13.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+180/-235)
  Romy Gonzalez has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 76% ROI)