Betting Trends for Reds vs Tigers Game – 6/15/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds prepare for their matchup on June 15, 2025, the stakes are uniquely heightened following a lopsided affair just a day prior. The Reds triumphed over the Tigers with an emphatic 11-1 victory, a result that has certainly added pressure on Detroit as they aim to bounce back at Comerica Park.

Currently, the Tigers sit atop the American League Central with a strong 46-26 record, showcasing their prowess with the 9th best offense in MLB this season. Despite their solid overall performance, they are coming off a disappointing loss, and their starting pitcher for this game, Tyler Holton, enters with a 4.22 ERA, suggesting he has faced some misfortune this year. Holton, who has primarily come out of the bullpen, projects to pitch around 1.8 innings today, which raises concerns given his tendency to allow hits and earned runs.

On the other side, the Reds, holding a mediocre 36-35 record, have shown flashes of offensive capability, ranking 11th in MLB. However, they will rely on Wade Miley, who has struggled with a 9.00 ERA and a low strikeout rate. Miley’s recent appearance saw him allow 3 earned runs over 5 innings, reflecting a pitcher in search of consistency. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he could perform better today against a Tigers lineup that has a penchant for striking out.

With the Tigers favored heavily in the betting market, they carry an implied team total of 4.82 runs against a Reds squad projected to score just 3.68 runs. If the Tigers can capitalize on Miley’s vulnerabilities, they should have a solid shot at evening the series and reaffirming their status as a contender in the AL Central.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Wade Miley – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Wade Miley will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Elly De La Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 97.2-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-180)
  The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Parker Meadows is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#3-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen ranks as the best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 72 games (+16.23 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)