Betting Trends for Mets vs Nationals Game – 4/25/25

New York Mets

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the New York Mets on April 25, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams amidst their contrasting seasons. The Mets enter the game with an impressive record of 18-7, sitting comfortably in the standings, while the Nationals struggle at 11-14, looking to reverse their bad fortune. In their last outing, the Nationals faced disappointment, losing to the Mets 2-1 on April 24. Meanwhile, the Mets are riding high after a thrilling 4-3 victory.

Pitching will be pivotal in this matchup, with Jake Irvin projected to start for the Nationals. Despite holding a solid 3.68 ERA this season, Irvin ranks 183rd among MLB starters, highlighting his struggles to match up against tougher lineups. His last start on April 20 saw him perform admirably, going 6 innings with just 2 earned runs. However, projections suggest he may allow a troubling 5.2 hits and 2.0 walks today, which could spell trouble against a potent Mets offense.

On the other side, Kodai Senga takes the mound for the Mets, boasting an exceptional 0.79 ERA and a Power Ranking of 55th among MLB starters. Senga’s last appearance was dominant, throwing 6 scoreless innings with only 3 hits allowed. His projections indicate he will likely match Irvin’s average innings pitched today but may allow 2.6 earned runs, a number that could be costly against a struggling Nationals lineup.

With the Nationals’ offense ranking 21st in MLB and their bullpen ranked 29th, they face an uphill battle. The projections favor the Mets, who have the 17th best offense and are expected to capitalize on their favorable matchup. As the Nationals look to halt their slide, it remains to be seen if they can overcome the odds against a Mets team that appears poised for continued success.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Kodai Senga’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.3% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-170)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jake Irvin’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.3 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last season (93.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kodai Senga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-170)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+130/-170)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 28% ROI)