Betting Trends for Mariners vs Phillies Game – 8/18/25

Seattle Mariners

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Philadelphia Phillies

On August 18, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Seattle Mariners in the first game of an intriguing interleague series at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are currently enjoying a strong season with a 71-53 record, while the Mariners sit at 68-57, both teams looking to secure crucial wins as they approach the final stretch of the season.

In their last outings, the Phillies triumphed over their opponents, winning a high-scoring affair 11-9, showcasing their impressive offense. Conversely, the Mariners fell short, losing 7-3, which highlights the challenges they face heading into this matchup. The projections suggest that the Phillies, with their #9 ranked offense, have the upper hand in terms of scoring potential.

On the mound, Ranger Suarez is expected to take the hill for the Phillies. Suarez, ranked 26th among starting pitchers, has a solid 3.28 ERA this season, although his 3.81 xFIP indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far. He has been a high-groundball pitcher, which could serve him well against the Mariners’ powerful offense, ranked 4th in home runs, but struggling against groundball pitchers.

On the other side, Logan Gilbert, ranked 18th among starting pitchers, boasts a comparable ERA of 3.31 and has shown signs of being unlucky this season. His ability to strike out batters, averaging 6.1 strikeouts per game, could prove beneficial against a Phillies lineup that ranks 7th in batting average but can be prone to strikeouts.

With a low game total of 7.5 runs, the odds are favoring a close contest. The Phillies currently hold a slight edge in the moneyline, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. As both teams seek to build momentum, this game promises to be a pivotal moment in their respective seasons.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.7% less often this year (62%) than he did last season (67.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this year (89.4 mph) below where it was last year (90.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Nick Castellanos’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.5-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 82.4-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Bryce Harper has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+16.36 Units / 16% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)