Betting Trends for Dodgers vs Guardians Game – 5/26/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Cleveland Guardians

On May 26, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Progressive Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are coming off losses, with the Guardians falling 5-0 in their last outing against the Detroit Tigers, while the Dodgers were edged 3-1 by the San Francisco Giants. The Guardians, currently sitting at 29-23, are having a solid season, but their offense ranks just 24th in MLB, which poses a challenge against the Dodgers, who boast the 2nd best offense in the league.

Projected starters Gavin Williams and Yoshinobu Yamamoto present a stark contrast in performance. Williams, ranked 69th among starting pitchers, holds a 4-2 record with a 3.94 ERA this season. Despite a decent showing in his last start on May 21, where he allowed only one earned run over six innings, his high walk rate (12.4 BB%) could be exploited by a patient Dodgers lineup that draws the 3rd most walks in MLB.

On the other hand, Yamamoto, an elite pitcher ranked 4th, has a remarkable 1.86 ERA and has demonstrated dominance recently, throwing seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts in his last start. His ability to limit earned runs creates a challenging scenario for the Guardians’ struggling offense.

The projections suggest that the Guardians will struggle to score, with an implied team total of just 3.29 runs. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have an average implied total of 4.21 runs. Given the disparity in offensive firepower and pitching prowess, the Dodgers appear poised to capitalize on the Guardians’ weaknesses, making them the favorite in this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all SPs, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball spin rate of 2195 rpm grades out in the 16th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Typically, hitters like Max Muncy who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Gavin Williams.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 10.7% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers makes them the #4 squad in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Because groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Gavin Williams (34.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Bo Naylor has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+155)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+8.65 Units / 144% ROI)