Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
(-105/-115)+155
The Atlanta Braves will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 2, 2025, at Truist Park in a matchup that features two teams heading in opposite directions this season. The Braves are currently struggling with a record of 14-16, ranking 13th in offensive production and 23rd in bullpen performance, while the Dodgers have surged to a 21-10 record, boasting the 2nd best offense in MLB. Atlanta’s playoff hopes seem dim, while the Dodgers look poised for a strong season.
In their most recent outing, the Braves saw their best hitter maintain a solid pace with a .375 batting average and a 1.161 OPS over the last week. However, they will face a significant challenge against Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been exceptional this year with a 1.06 ERA and ranks as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB. Meanwhile, Braves starter Grant Holmes, ranked 151st, has shown inconsistency with a 4.50 ERA and projections that suggest he may struggle to maintain his current performance.
Holmes is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 3.2 earned runs, alongside an average of 5.4 hits and 2.2 walks. This could prove problematic against the Dodgers, who rank 5th in batting average and 2nd in home runs. The Braves’ offensive struggles, particularly in generating runs and capitalizing on scoring opportunities, may hinder their chances against a strong Dodgers lineup that projects to score 5.03 runs in this game.
With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors might be intrigued by the Braves’ underdog status at +145. Despite their current form, the projections still hint that Atlanta could be a wild card in this matchup. However, the Dodgers’ strong overall performance and elite pitching edge make them the clear favorites in this contest.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s change-up utilization has risen by 5.1% from last season to this one (24.1% to 29.2%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Atlanta (#2-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+155)The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- As a team, Atlanta Braves bats have not performed well in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 5th-worst in Major League Baseball.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)Andy Pages has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+21.10 Units / 352% ROI)