Betting Trends for Astros vs Marlins Game – 8/4/25

Houston Astros

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Miami Marlins

On August 4, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Houston Astros at LoanDepot Park, marking the first game in a brief interleague series. Both teams enter this matchup after contrasting performances; the Marlins recently secured a victory against the Astros, winning 7-3, while Houston suffered a disappointing 6-1 loss. As current standings show, the Marlins sit at .500 with a record of 55-55, indicating an average season, whereas the Astros boast a solid 62-50 record, reflecting their successful campaign so far.

Projected to start for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 62nd best in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite his struggles this season, with a Win/Loss record of 6-9 and an alarming ERA of 6.36, Alcantara demonstrated potential in his last outing, tossing five innings with no earned runs. He projects to pitch around 6.3 innings today while allowing only 2.5 earned runs, which bodes well against an Astros offense that ranks 13th overall but has struggled recently.

His opponent, Jason Alexander, also a right-handed pitcher, has been among the least effective in the league, with a 7.36 ERA and only a 1-1 record. Projections suggest he’ll pitch about 5.3 innings and allow roughly 3.0 earned runs. Miami’s hitters, despite ranking 20th in overall offensive performance, hold the 10th spot in team batting average, which could present an opportunity against a struggling Alexander.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets have established the Marlins as slight favorites with a moneyline of -135, suggesting they might secure another win in this tightly contested matchup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all starters, Jason Alexander’s fastball velocity of 90.5 mph is in the 15th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Because flyball pitchers hold a notable advantage over flyball hitters, Sandy Alcantara and his 48.6% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot today facing 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Graham Pauley’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 85.7-mph seasonal average has fallen to 79.9-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-130)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 70 games (+19.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+14.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)