Betting Trends for Astros vs Marlins Game – 8/4/25

Houston Astros

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Miami Marlins

On August 4, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Houston Astros at LoanDepot Park in an Interleague matchup. This game marks the first in a series between the two teams, and both are looking to solidify their standings as the season approaches its final stretch. The Marlins sit at a balanced 55-55, while the Astros hold a stronger 62-50 record, indicating they are having a good season.

In their last game, the Astros struggled, but they will be turning to Jason Alexander, who has been less than impressive this year with a 7.36 ERA. Alexander has a low strikeout rate and will be facing a Marlins lineup that ranks 6th in fewest strikeouts. This matchup may favor the Marlins, as they could exploit Alexander’s struggles. Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara, projected to start for Miami, has experienced a rough season himself, with a 6.36 ERA. However, he does hold a respectable 4.50 xFIP, suggesting he might have faced some misfortune.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 20th in the league, which puts them at a disadvantage, especially against an Astros offense that ranks 11th overall. Nonetheless, Miami’s batting average ranks 10th, indicating potential for scoring. The Marlins’ best hitter has been performing well recently, recording 8 RBIs and 2 home runs over the last week, which could provide a spark in this matchup.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest. With both teams having moneyline odds of -110, this matchup is expected to be competitive. The Marlins’ starting pitcher is projected to pitch well, and if they can capitalize on Alexander’s weaknesses, they may just pull off an upset.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all starters, Jason Alexander’s fastball velocity of 90.5 mph is in the 15th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Placing 8th-steepest in baseball this year, Houston Astros batters as a unit have posted a 15.2° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable stat to evaluate power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because flyball pitchers hold a notable advantage over flyball hitters, Sandy Alcantara and his 48.6% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot today facing 2 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Graham Pauley’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 86.2-mph seasonal average has fallen to 81.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 70 games (+19.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+14.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Dane Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 64% ROI)