Los Angeles Angels
San Diego Padres
(-120/+100)-190
As the San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Angels on May 14, 2025, the stakes are palpable. The Padres, sitting at 26-15, are enjoying a strong season, while the Angels have struggled with a 17-24 record. In their last encounter, the Padres secured a solid victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.
Tonight’s matchup features Randy Vasquez on the mound for the Padres, projected to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing around 2.7 earned runs. Despite his challenges, including a 3.76 ERA and a 6.21 xFIP that implies some luck, Vasquez has had moments of promise. He faces Kyle Hendricks, who has had a rough time this season with a 5.30 ERA and a 1-4 record. Hendricks is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, but with a low strikeout rate, he may struggle against the Padres’ offense.
San Diego’s offense ranks 12th overall in MLB, boasting the 2nd best team batting average. This potent lineup is complemented by their bullpen, ranked 3rd best in MLB, which could be crucial if the game remains close. In contrast, the Angels’ offense has been disappointing, ranking 26th in MLB overall and 29th in batting average, despite a solid ranking for home runs with 6th overall. This inconsistency could be problematic against a strong Padres pitching staff.
With the game total set at 9.0 runs and San Diego favored at -185, the projections lean heavily in favor of the Padres. The combination of their strong pitching and offensive capabilities suggests that they will be able to capitalize on the Angels’ weaknesses, making this matchup an intriguing one for bettors looking to back the home team.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Kyle Hendricks’s fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this year (85.5 mph) below where it was last season (87.5 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Zach Neto has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last season’s 88.5-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Jorge Soler hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)Randy Vasquez has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Brandon Lockridge – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Typically, batters like Brandon Lockridge who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Kyle Hendricks.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.4% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+100)The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.13 Units / 19% ROI)
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.95 Units / 58% ROI)