Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Orioles vs Rays Sunday, August 11, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on August 11, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight in the American League East. The Rays sit at .500 with a 58-58 record, while the Orioles have been thriving with a 70-48 mark, showcasing their strong season. The Rays have struggled to maintain consistency this year, and their recent performance has not been encouraging.

In their last game, the Orioles defeated the Rays, which marked a continuation of their solid play. Jeffrey Springs is projected to take the mound for Tampa Bay, but he has had a rough season thus far, with an ERA of 6.23, indicating he’s been less effective than hoped. Despite being ranked as the 94th best starting pitcher, his xFIP of 5.61 suggests some bad luck may be affecting his performance. Springs has struggled with control, evident in his high walk rate of 9.5%, which could be problematic against an Orioles offense that ranks 3rd in MLB.

On the other side, Baltimore’s Albert Suarez has had a better season, posting a 3.66 ERA over 15 starts. However, his xFIP of 4.63 indicates he might not be as effective going forward. The Orioles’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st in home runs, which could pose a significant threat to Springs.

With the game total set at an average 8.0 runs, both teams are projected to score around 4.00 runs each. Betting markets view this matchup as a close contest, with both teams’ moneylines set at -110. Given the disparity in performance and offense, the Orioles appear to have the edge, especially with their potent lineup against the struggling Springs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  With a 1.21 gap between Albert Suarez’s 3.66 ERA and his 4.87 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to see negative regression going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Tampa Bay’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Jonny Deluca is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games at home (+12.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+14.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 51% ROI)