Betting Trends and Expert Picks for D-Backs vs Cubs Saturday, July 20, 2024)

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field on July 20, 2024, fans are set for the second game of a National League series. The Cubs, currently holding a 47-52 record, are navigating a challenging season, while the Diamondbacks, at 50-48, are performing around average.

The Cubs fell to the Diamondbacks 5-2 in the series opener on July 19, despite being favored with a closing Moneyline price of -145. Kyle Hendricks, who holds a 2-7 record and a troubling 6.78 ERA, will take the mound for Chicago. However, Hendricks has been unlucky this year as indicated by his 4.34 xFIP, suggesting his performance could improve. He pitched well in his last start on July 12, delivering seven scoreless innings.

Arizona will counter with Zac Gallen, who has a solid 6-5 record and a 3.87 ERA this season. Gallen struggled in his last outing on July 14, giving up six earned runs over four innings. Despite this, he remains highly ranked as the 22nd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, in stark contrast to Hendricks’s 146th ranking.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 17th in MLB, though their batting average (22nd) and home run totals (20th) lag behind. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, boast the 9th best offense and rank 6th in batting average. Their slugging is also stronger, highlighted by Ketel Marte, who has an impressive .295 batting average and .880 OPS. Meanwhile, Ian Happ leads the Cubs with a .802 OPS, 53 runs, and 58 RBIs over 93 games.

From a betting perspective, the Diamondbacks are favored with a Moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this outlook, projecting a 55% win probability for Arizona. The Cubs, currently at +115, have an implied win probability of 44% but project to score 4.24 runs. Arizona is projected to score 5.06 runs, emphasizing their offensive edge.

With both teams looking to bolster their standings, this matchup at Wrigley Field promises to be intriguing, particularly with Gallen aiming to bounce back and Hendricks striving to capitalize on his recent form.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zac Gallen’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (94.2 mph) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Joc Pederson is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Recording 14 outs per game per started this year on average, Kyle Hendricks checks in at the 9th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dansby Swanson’s true offensive ability to be a .325, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .049 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .276 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Christopher Morel, Michael Busch).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)