Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Angels vs Guardians Saturday, May 31, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Angels at Progressive Field on May 31, 2025, in a matchup that holds significance for both teams. The Guardians currently sit at 30-26 for the season, enjoying an above-average run, while the Angels trail at 26-30, struggling to find consistency and ranking as one of the 24th best offenses in MLB. The Guardians won the previous game in this series, which puts them in a favorable position as they look to secure another victory.

On the mound, the Guardians will send out Slade Cecconi, who has shown promise despite being ranked as the 135th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings. Cecconi has a solid ERA of 3.27 this season and has been somewhat unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 2.63. He projects to pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs, striking out an average of 5.3 batters. However, he may face challenges from an Angels lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, which could play into his favor.

Kyle Hendricks, on the other hand, has had a rough season, holding a 5.23 ERA and a win-loss record of 2-6. He’s been projected to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.4 innings, but with a strikeout rate of only 3.4 batters per game, he may struggle against the Guardians’ lineup.

The Guardians’ offense, though ranked 22nd overall, has shown flashes of power, sitting at 15th in home runs. The Angels, while powerful in this department ranking 4th in home runs, have been hindered by a poor batting average, placing them 27th. With the Guardians favored at a moneyline of -185, they hold an implied team total of 4.57 runs. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Guardians to extend their winning streak and capitalize on the Angels’ struggles.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over flyball hitters, Kyle Hendricks and his 34.9% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in today’s game facing 3 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Mike Trout is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Slade Cecconi has relied on his non-fastballs 7.2% more often this year (52.8%) than he did last season (45.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Nolan Jones has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year’s 88.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Bo Naylor, the Guardians’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-165)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 56 games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+145)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 away games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Zach Neto has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.90 Units / 35% ROI)