Betting Tips and Odds for Royals vs Tigers – Saturday August 3rd, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on August 3, 2024, at Comerica Park, the matchup carries significant implications for both teams. The Tigers currently sit at 52-59, struggling in a season that has seen them rank 27th in offensive production across MLB. Conversely, the Royals boast a stronger 62-49 record, reflecting a solid performance throughout the year.

In their last encounter on August 2, the Tigers fell to the Royals by a score of 9-2, marking a disappointing continuation of their struggles. With Tyler Holton projected to start for Detroit, the left-handed pitcher has shown mixed results, averaging just 1.8 innings pitched while allowing 0.8 earned runs. His last outing was abbreviated, going only 3 innings but without allowing any earned runs, which offers a glimmer of hope.

On the other side, Kansas City’s Michael Lorenzen, a right-handed pitcher, has had an inconsistent season. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.81, his 4.97 xFIP suggests he may have been riding some luck this season. In his last start, he was hit hard, allowing 4 earned runs in just 1 inning.

Offensively, the Tigers’ best hitter this season has been Matt Vierling, who has played in 99 games. Over the last week, Justyn-Henry Malloy has stepped up, recording 5 hits in 6 games. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. continues to lead the Royals with strong numbers, including a .348 batting average and 25 stolen bases.

The projections indicate a competitive game, with the Tigers having a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, while the Royals sit at 4.61. With both teams looking to establish momentum, this matchup could be pivotal in determining their respective trajectories as the season progresses.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Michael Lorenzen will record an average of 3.9 strikeouts in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has dropped to 80-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  With 9 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Tyler Holton has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Javier Baez has had some very poor luck this year. His .209 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .271.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 88 games (+8.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.85 Units / 47% ROI)