Betting Tips and Odds for Red Sox vs Dodgers – Sunday July 21st, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As we gear up for the interleague showdown at Dodger Stadium on July 21, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be looking to secure another victory against the Boston Red Sox. Both teams are in the midst of solid seasons, with the Dodgers holding a 58-41 record and the Red Sox at 53-44. This game carries significant weight as it’s the third and final game in their series, with the Dodgers having edged out the Red Sox 7-6 in yesterday’s closely contested battle.

The Dodgers, who sport the best offense in MLB, will be sending James Paxton to the mound. Despite his underwhelming ranking as the #281 best starting pitcher in MLB, Paxton has managed a 7-2 record with a 4.38 ERA this year. However, his high xFIP of 5.37 suggests he may have been fortunate so far, indicating potential challenges ahead. Notably, Paxton’s last start was a short one, where he struggled, allowing three earned runs in just four innings.

Kutter Crawford will take the hill for the Red Sox. Crawford, ranked #49 among starting pitchers, boasts an impressive 3.00 ERA, although his 4.06 xFIP hints at some luck on his side as well. Crawford’s last outing was stellar, pitching seven scoreless innings, which bodes well for Boston. However, his flyball tendencies could be problematic against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs.

The offensive matchup is intriguing. The Dodgers have the 1st ranked offense and are 3rd in home runs, while the Red Sox hold strong at 6th in offense and 4th in batting average. Los Angeles will look to exploit Crawford’s flyball rate with their power, potentially giving them an edge.

On the pitching side, the Dodgers’ bullpen, ranked 9th, should provide solid support behind Paxton. Conversely, Boston’s bullpen, ranked 24th, could be a liability, especially in a tight game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a slight edge with a 53% win probability, while betting markets have their implied win probability at 51%. With these insights, it seems the Dodgers might hold the upper hand in what promises to be another close contest.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 away games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)