Betting Tips and Odds for Phillies vs Rays – Thursday May 8th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 8, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the third game of their interleague series. In their previous matchup, the Phillies dominated the Rays with a 7-0 victory, marking a tough stretch for Tampa Bay, which has now lost four of its last five games. Meanwhile, Philadelphia continues to ride a wave of success, boasting a solid 21-15 record this season.

Ryan Pepiot is projected to take the mound for the Rays, and while he ranks as the 94th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has struggled with a 2-4 record and a 4.23 ERA this year. Pepiot projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings while allowing around 2.9 earned runs. With a tendency to give up 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks per game, he faces a daunting challenge against a potent Phillies lineup.

On the other side, Jesus Luzardo will start for Philadelphia. Ranked 34th among MLB starters, Luzardo has been impressive with a 3-0 record and a sparkling 1.94 ERA. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters on average. Luzardo’s ability to generate ground balls (48% GB rate) could mitigate the Rays’ lack of power, as they rank 25th in home runs this season.

The projections favor the Phillies with an implied team total of 4.98 runs, while the Rays sit at 4.02 runs. With both teams showing contrasting forms, the Rays must find a way to bounce back against a strong opponent if they hope to reverse their current fortunes.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Jesus Luzardo has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 4.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (27.0) may lead us to conclude that Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate this year with his 46.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-155)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+140/-185)
  Ryan Pepiot’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (60.6% compared to 49.4% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Danny Jansen is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #24 group of hitters in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kameron Misner – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+180/-240)
  Kameron Misner has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+7.50 Units / 83% ROI)