Betting Tips and Odds for Orioles vs Yankees – Wednesday September 25th, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on September 25, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, both teams find themselves in the thick of the American League East race. The Yankees boast an impressive 92-65 record, while the Orioles are not far behind at 87-70. This matchup is crucial as both teams vie for playoff positioning with the regular season winding down.

Yesterday, the Yankees took the first game of this series, and with Nestor Cortes on the mound tonight, they aim to continue their success. Cortes, a left-hander, holds a 9-10 record with a solid 3.77 ERA. He faces a potent Orioles lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs. His flyball tendencies could be a concern against Baltimore’s power hitters, but Cortes is projected to allow just 2.2 earned runs over 5.2 innings, a promising outlook for New York.

On the other side, the Orioles counter with Zach Eflin, a right-handed pitcher with a 10-9 record and a 3.53 ERA. Eflin’s strength lies in his control, walking just 2.9% of batters faced, which could neutralize the Yankees’ ability to draw walks, a key component of their 1st-ranked home run offense. However, Eflin’s projection of 2.7 earned runs over 5.2 innings suggests he may have his hands full against New York’s bats.

The Yankees’ offense, ranked 3rd overall, will look to capitalize on Eflin’s projections to maintain their divisional lead. Aaron Judge, with a .333 batting average and 1.409 OPS over the last week, remains a critical threat. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Ryan O’Hearn has been hot, batting .429 in his last five games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are strong favorites with a 61% win probability, exceeding their implied odds of 57%. As the game unfolds, the Yankees will aim to leverage their home-field advantage and solidify their position in the playoff race.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Zach Eflin’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2027 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2097 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Colton Cowser has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.6-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 90.4-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Despite posting a .471 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Aaron Judge has been lucky given the .044 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .427.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-150)
  The New York Yankees projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 107 games (+14.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under Team Total
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 90 games (+16.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+11.90 Units / 15% ROI)