Betting Tips and Odds for Nationals vs Phillies – Tuesday April 29th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals on April 29, 2025, in what marks the first game of a series between these two National League East rivals. The Phillies currently sit above .500 at 15-13, while the Nationals find themselves struggling at 13-16. Despite both teams’ records indicating a lackluster start to the season, this matchup offers some intriguing storylines for bettors, especially given how both pitching staffs stack up.

Zack Wheeler, one of the elite pitchers in baseball ranked 5th overall according to advanced statistics, is projected to take the mound for Philadelphia. Wheeler has started six games this season, holding a solid 2-1 record with a respectable 3.62 ERA. Although his ERA suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, his 2.55 xFIP indicates he could be poised for a breakout performance. On the other hand, MacKenzie Gore is set to start for the Nationals. While Gore is ranked 54th among MLB starters and has a good 3.34 ERA, his 2.19 xFIP suggests he may also be due for improvement.

Both offenses present contrasting narratives. The Phillies rank 12th overall, with a notably weak power output, sitting at 25th in home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals, ranked 20th, have shown inconsistency, though they rank 9th in stolen bases, providing a glimpse of their potential.

Given Wheeler’s proven ability and the edge he holds over Gore, the Phillies should be considered the favorites in this matchup. With a high implied team total of 4.85 runs and the current betting line favoring them at -185, the projections may undervalue their potential against a struggling Nationals squad. As they look to capitalize on their strengths while exploiting the Nationals’ weaknesses, expect the Phillies to make a strong case for victory.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has relied on his secondary pitches 5.5% more often this season (50.2%) than he did last season (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all SPs, Zack Wheeler’s fastball spin rate of 2439 rpm ranks in the 86th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Collectively, Philadelphia Phillies batters have done well as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 2nd-best in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-130/+100)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.25 Units / 64% ROI)