Betting Tips and Odds for Marlins vs Padres – Wednesday May 28th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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San Diego Padres

On May 28, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Miami Marlins at Petco Park for the third game of their series. The Padres are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 31-22, while the Marlins sit at 21-32, struggling significantly. In their previous matchup on May 27, the Padres pulled off an 8-6 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.

The Padres will send Kyle Hart to the mound. Hart has had a rocky season, with a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and a troubling ERA of 6.00. However, his xFIP of 4.85 suggests he might have been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. On the other side, the Marlins will rely on Sandy Alcantara, who, despite being a solid pitcher overall with a Power Ranking of 43rd, is currently having a difficult year. His ERA stands at 8.04, with a poor outing in his last start where he allowed five earned runs.

Offensively, the Padres rank 14th in MLB, buoyed by their best hitter, who has been on a tear, recording a .357 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Marlins rank 16th, with their best player performing well but not enough to offset the overall struggles of the lineup. The Padres’ bullpen is also a significant advantage, ranked 2nd in MLB, compared to the Marlins’ 25th.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Padres are favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting a strong implied team total of 4.62 runs. In contrast, the Marlins are projected to score an average of 3.88 runs. Given the current trends, the Padres look poised to continue their success and capitalize on the Marlins’ difficulties.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Sandy Alcantara has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 4.4 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Batters such as Jesus Sanchez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kyle Hart who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jesus Sanchez, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Diego Padres Insights

• Kyle Hart – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  The Miami Marlins have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Hart today, which is especially problematic given his huge platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+6.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Manny Machado has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 39% ROI)