Betting Tips and Odds for Dodgers vs Phillies – Saturday April 5th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 5, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two of the top teams in the National League. Both teams are off to strong starts this season, with the Phillies holding a 6-1 record and the Dodgers at 8-1. In their previous game on April 4, the Phillies edged out the Dodgers, winning 3-2, setting the stage for a competitive rematch.

Aaron Nola is projected to take the mound for the Phillies, despite struggling this season with an 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 8.44. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 2.23 xFIP indicates he could perform better moving forward. Nola’s strikeout potential is solid, projecting to fan 6.0 batters today, but he faces a daunting challenge against a powerful Dodgers lineup that boasts 19 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in MLB.

On the other side, Roki Sasaki will start for the Dodgers. He has had a rocky start as well, with a 5.79 ERA and a high 7.88 xFIP, hinting that he may be due for a downturn. While Sasaki has the ability to strike out hitters, he projects to only pitch 4.4 innings today, which could put pressure on a Dodgers bullpen ranked 4th best in MLB.

The Phillies’ offense ranks 3rd overall and leads the league in batting average, which could play a crucial role in today’s game. With Nola’s potential for improvement and the strong offensive capabilities of the Phillies, they might have the edge despite the close odds. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive contest ahead.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  When estimating his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Roki Sasaki in the 91st percentile among all SPs in baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Michael Conforto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+330/-480)
  Trea Turner’s footspeed has decreased this year. His 29.56 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.4 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Bryce Harper has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 71 games at home (+12.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 115 games (+26.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-140/+110)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 55% ROI)