Betting Tips and Odds for Cubs vs Reds – Saturday May 24th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago Cubs in the second game of their series on May 24, 2025, following a lopsided 13-6 victory for the Cubs in yesterday’s matchup. Currently, the Cubs are sitting pretty with a 31-20 record, showcasing one of the best offenses in baseball, ranked 3rd overall. In contrast, the Reds are struggling at 25-27, marking a below-average season as they aim to bounce back.

Starting for the Reds is Andrew Abbott, who has been a bright spot for the team with a stellar 1.80 ERA, although advanced projections suggest he may be due for a regression given his 3.98 xFIP, indicating he has been somewhat lucky. Abbott’s high flyball rate (52 FB%) could be problematic against the Cubs’ powerful lineup, which has hit 73 home runs this season, ranking 4th in MLB. Abbott also tends to walk batters at a 10.6% rate, which could give the patient Cubs offense more opportunities to capitalize.

On the other side, Colin Rea takes the mound for the Cubs. Although he has a solid 2.38 ERA, projections indicate that he might not be as effective moving forward, as his 4.07 xFIP suggests he has benefited from favorable conditions. Rea’s low strikeout rate (19.1 K%) could work in his favor against a Reds lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

Given the Cubs’ current form and offensive prowess, they are projected to have the edge in this matchup. While the Reds’ offense ranks 12th overall, they will need to find a way to generate more runs against a Cubs team that boasts both power and a solid batting average, ranking 2nd in MLB. With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors should expect an action-packed contest.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Colin Rea has utilized his secondary pitches 7.7% less often this year (41.5%) than he did last year (49.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Miguel Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Miguel Amaya has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph dropping to 76.3-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Chicago Cubs offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Andrew Abbott’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this season (91.2 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball batters like Elly De La Cruz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Colin Rea.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cincinnati Reds hitters jointly rank among the worst in the league this year ( 3rd-worst) in regard to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 51% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 47 games (+9.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.25 Units / 65% ROI)