Betting Odds and Picks for Yankees vs Red Sox – 9/12/25

New York Yankees

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Boston Red Sox

On September 12, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will face off against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park in the first game of a pivotal series. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Red Sox standing at 81-66 and the Yankees slightly ahead at 81-65. These American League East rivals are in a tight race, making every game crucial as they both seek to solidify their playoff positions.

In their most recent outings, the Red Sox fell just short, losing 5-4, while the Yankees emerged victorious with a commanding 9-3 win. This sets the stage for an intriguing matchup as both teams look to build momentum.

The Red Sox are projected to start Lucas Giolito, who has a Win/Loss record of 10-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.38 this season. However, his 4.47 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat lucky so far. Giolito’s low strikeout rate (19.7 K%) could work in his favor against the Yankees’ high-strikeout lineup, which ranks 4th in the league. Meanwhile, Luis Gil will take the mound for the Yankees, sporting a 3-1 record and a 3.31 ERA. However, his 5.57 xFIP indicates potential struggles ahead.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 1st in the league in home runs, while the Red Sox boast the 8th best overall offense. Boston’s lineup features a strong performer who has recorded 79 runs and 79 RBIs this season, while the Yankees’ best hitter has put up staggering numbers, including 118 runs and 46 home runs.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Red Sox currently at +100 on the moneyline, the projections suggest a close contest. However, the Red Sox’s solid offensive ranking could give them an edge in this tight matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Luis Gil has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.64 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.23 — a 1.58 K/9 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-105)
  The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the best among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nathan Eaton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Nate Eaton has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.7-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games (+14.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+13.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.65 Units / 23% ROI)