Betting Odds and Picks for White Sox vs Astros – 8/18/24

Chicago White Sox

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on August 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in distinctly different situations. The Astros, with a record of 66-56, are riding high on an above-average season, showcasing their playoff potential despite being out of the division race. In contrast, the White Sox are struggling significantly at 30-94, marking one of the worst seasons in baseball history.

The last matchup between these two ended with the Astros taking the win, and they will look to continue that momentum. On the mound for Houston is Framber Valdez, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 12th among approximately 350 starters, boasting a stellar 3.38 ERA and a 12-5 record. Valdez projects to pitch an average of 6.4 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs today, making him a tough challenge for the White Sox lineup.

Ky Bush, also a left-handed pitcher, is set to start for Chicago. Unfortunately for the White Sox, Bush has struggled, recording an ERA of 5.19 in his two starts this season. His projections indicate he might pitch only 4.7 innings while allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, which could spell trouble against an Astros offense that ranks 2nd in team batting average and 11th overall in the league.

The White Sox offense has been anemic, ranking 30th in MLB, and will need to find a way to penetrate Valdez’s groundball tendencies. Given the Astros’ powerful lineup and advantageous pitching matchups, the projections favor Houston heavily. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, betting odds currently reflect a significant favorite status for the Astros, with an implied team total of 5.27 runs—a number that highlights their offensive strength against a beleaguered White Sox squad.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Ky Bush – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Ky Bush has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 9 opposite-handed hitters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Miguel Vargas has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 78-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago White Sox have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Framber Valdez’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (94.4 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (93.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jake Meyers has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .300 mark is a fair amount lower than his .340 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 73 games (+13.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.95 Units / 46% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-265)
  Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.05 Units / 37% ROI)