Betting Odds and Picks for Royals vs White Sox – 7/29/24

Kansas City Royals

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox, amid a dreadful season with a 27-81 record, host the 57-49 Kansas City Royals at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 29, 2024. This American League Central matchup features two struggling starters: Chris Flexen for the White Sox and Alec Marsh for the Royals. The White Sox are reeling from a tough loss to the Mariners on July 28, falling 6-3, while the Royals also come in looking to rebound from a 7-3 drubbing by the Cubs.

Flexen’s season has been dismal, reflected in his 2-10 Win/Loss record and a bloated 5.25 ERA. His last outing was uneventful, where he gave up three earned runs over five innings against Seattle. The White Sox offense, the worst in MLB by almost every metric, will face Marsh, who has a more respectable 4.75 ERA but has also experienced inconsistency. His xFIP of 4.21 suggests he’s been unlucky and may perform better moving forward.

The Royals, led by their offensive dynamo Bobby Witt Jr., look to capitalize on the White Sox’s numerous weaknesses. Witt Jr. has been stellar, boasting a .341 batting average, 18 home runs, and 23 stolen bases. His sizzling form continued last week with a .417 batting average and a 1.212 OPS.

On the flip side, the White Sox have struggled offensively, ranking last or near-last in team batting average, home runs, and overall offensive production. They will need Herculean efforts from players like Andrew Vaughn and recent hot performer Paul DeJong, who hit .273 with a .941 OPS last week.

Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the White Sox to have a 44% win probability, which is 5% higher than the betting market suggests. While the Royals are favored with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%, the projections suggest there might be value in betting on the underdog White Sox. With both bullpens and starting pitchers being among the worst in MLB, bettors can anticipate a potentially high-scoring affair, as evidenced by the 9.0 total runs line.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Alec Marsh will give up an average of 2.83 earned runs in today’s outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+110/-140)
  Based on Statcast metrics, Bobby Witt Jr. ranks in the 99th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .321.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Kansas City has been the #29 team in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (41.2% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Flexen has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.3% more often this year (61.8%) than he did last season (54.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 72 games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Luis Robert has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.00 Units / 38% ROI)