Betting Odds and Picks for Reds vs Cubs – 8/04/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on August 4, 2025, this matchup marks the beginning of a crucial series for both teams. The Cubs, currently holding a strong record of 65-46, are in the midst of a great season and sit comfortably in the National League Central standings. Conversely, the Reds, with a 58-54 record, are having an above-average year but are not contending for the division title.

In their last game, the Cubs emerged victorious against the Reds with a score of 5-3, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks as the 3rd best in MLB. The Cubs have been hitting well all season, leading in home runs and demonstrating solid batting average and stolen base stats. Their offensive firepower will be bolstered by the performance of their best hitter, who has shown excellent form, hitting .391 with a .965 OPS over the last week.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mike Soroka, who has had a challenging season with a 3-8 record and an ERA of 4.87. However, advanced stats suggest he might be due for some positive regression, as his xFIP stands at 4.06, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. Soroka’s ability to limit runs will be crucial against a Reds offense that, though average overall, has struggled to generate consistent power, ranking 20th in home runs.

The Reds will counter with left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been solid this season with an 8-6 record and an impressive 3.09 ERA. Despite this, projections indicate he may face challenges, given his high xFIP of 3.66, suggesting he has benefitted from some good fortune.

With the Cubs favored at -140 on the moneyline, they appear to have the edge, particularly given their strong lineup against a Reds team still searching for consistency. The game total is currently set at 8.0 runs, highlighting expectations for a competitive contest.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (93 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  In the last 14 days, Matt McLain’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Mike Soroka is projected to strikeout 5.9 batters in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Dansby Swanson’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 90.3-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 83.4-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games at home (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 86 games (+22.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 16% ROI)