Betting Odds and Picks for Nationals vs Marlins – 4/13/25

Washington Nationals

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins will host the Washington Nationals on April 13, 2025, in a pivotal National League East matchup. The Marlins currently sit at 7-7, while the Nationals trail with a disappointing 6-8 record. Both teams are in search of consistency as they navigate the early part of the season.

In their last outing on April 12, the Marlins edged out the Nationals in a close 7-6 contest, showcasing their offensive potential. However, the Marlins’ offense ranks only 21st in MLB, indicating they have room for improvement. Meanwhile, the Nationals boast a stronger offense, ranking 12th overall and 6th in home runs, which could pose a challenge for the Marlins’ pitching staff.

Cal Quantrill is projected to take the mound for the Marlins. Although he has a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an alarming ERA of 6.00, his 3.92 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Quantrill’s ability to induce ground balls (50% GB rate) could be crucial against a power-hitting Nationals lineup.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore, with his excellent 2.65 ERA and ranking as the 68th best starting pitcher, brings a significant advantage to the Nationals. Despite being on a two-game win streak, Gore’s projections indicate he may allow an average of 2.7 earned runs today, making for a potentially high-scoring affair.

The Marlins are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +125, while the Nationals are favored at -145. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the projections suggest a competitive game, but the betting landscape might not reflect the true potential of the Marlins if they can capitalize on their previous win momentum.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  This season, MacKenzie Gore has introduced a new pitch to his arsenal (a cut-fastball), working it in on 5.2% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Alex Call has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .352 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .260 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+130)
  Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jonah Bride – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Jonah Bride has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Derek Hill, Griffin Conine).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-6000)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+16.00 Units / 200% ROI)