Betting Odds and Picks for Athletics vs Yankees – 6/27/25

Athletics

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on June 27, 2025, at Yankee Stadium, they do so riding high on a successful season, boasting a 46-34 record. In contrast, the Athletics sit at 33-50, struggling significantly this year. This matchup marks the first game of the series between these two teams, and the stakes are palpable given the Yankees’ strong standing.

In their previous game, the Yankees showcased their offensive prowess, continuing a trend that sees them ranked as the 2nd best offense in MLB this season. They are particularly dangerous with power, ranking 2nd in home runs. Will Warren is set to take the mound for the Yankees, and while his 4-4 record and 4.66 ERA suggest an average performance, his 3.12 xFIP indicates he’s been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. Warren projects to pitch 5.5 innings and allow just 2.0 earned runs, which is impressive.

On the other hand, Mitch Spence will start for the Athletics. With a 2-2 record and a solid 3.84 ERA, his performance has been misleading. His 4.74 xERA suggests he’s been fortunate, and he faces a Yankees lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts, a challenge for Spence who has a low strikeout rate of 19.9%.

The Yankees are favored heavily with a moneyline of -205, reflecting their high implied team total of 4.98 runs. Conversely, the Athletics are underdogs at +180, with a lower implied total of 3.52 runs. Given the current projections and the Yankees’ offensive firepower, they appear poised to capitalize on Spence’s vulnerabilities, making this matchup one to watch closely for bettors.

Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Mitch Spence has generated a significant spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2675 rpm over the whole season to 2736 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lawrence Butler stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Luis Urias pulls many of his flyballs (37.4% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Will Warren is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the majors — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Typically, batters like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Mitch Spence.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Will Warren – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Projected catcher Austin Wells profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+16.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 80 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+110/-145)
  Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+7.45 Units / 20% ROI)