Betting Odds and Picks for Athletics vs Yankees – 6/27/25

Athletics

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees (46-34) are set to host the Oakland Athletics (33-50) at Yankee Stadium on June 27, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Yankees are enjoying a strong season, currently sitting in a competitive position, while the Athletics have struggled significantly, showcasing a disappointing record.

In their last outing on June 25, the Yankees dominated, winning decisively by a score of 7-1. Meanwhile, the Athletics faced a tough defeat, losing 8-0 in their previous game. This stark contrast in performance highlights the challenges Oakland has faced this season, as they look to turn things around.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Will Warren, who has been a solid contributor with a 4-4 record and an average ERA of 4.66. Warren’s advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season, as his 3.11 xFIP indicates he could be poised for better results. He also comes off a strong performance on June 22, where he pitched six innings, allowing just two earned runs.

Conversely, the Athletics will send Mitch Spence to the hill. Spence, with a 2-2 record and a 3.84 ERA, has had mixed results and is viewed as a less effective option given his higher xERA of 4.72. His last outing saw him struggle, allowing four earned runs in five innings.

The Yankees boast a powerful offense, ranking 2nd in MLB in home runs and 5th in batting average, which bodes well against Spence, a pitcher who has struggled against high-strikeout teams. The projections favor the Yankees significantly, with an implied team total of 5.13 runs, while the Athletics are projected for only 3.37 runs. As the Yankees look to maintain their winning momentum, they will aim to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling Athletics squad.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+215)
  Among every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Athletics.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so JJ Bleday has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Lawrence Butler has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will be challenged by the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  Will Warren is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the majors — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Typically, batters like DJ LeMahieu who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Mitch Spence.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The New York Yankees have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+16.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 80 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)