Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Twins vs Padres 8/20/24

Minnesota Twins

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres host the Minnesota Twins on August 20, 2024, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, sitting just a game apart in the standings with records of 71-55 and 70-55, respectively. This showdown marks the second game of the series after the Padres secured a 5-3 victory over the Twins the previous day, highlighting their offensive prowess and momentum heading into this matchup.

The Padres will send Martin Perez to the mound, who has a mixed year with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and a league ranking of #198 among starting pitchers. While his ERA sits at an average 4.62, his high 5.45 xERA indicates he may have been fortunate this season, suggesting potential struggles ahead, especially against a strong Twins lineup that ranks 7th best in MLB. In contrast, Bailey Ober for the Twins boasts an impressive 12-5 record and an even better 3.49 ERA, securing him a spot as the 32nd best starting pitcher.

The Padres’ offense, which ranks 1st in team batting average and 9th in overall performance, will face a significant challenge in capitalizing against Ober’s talents. However, with their current moneyline set at +105 and an average implied team total of 3.86 runs, there may be hidden value in the Padres’ ability to produce runs, especially given their recent form.

While the projections suggest a close contest, the Padres’ high-powered offense and favorable matchup against a lower-strikeout pitcher like Ober could give them an edge, potentially leading to another victory as they look to extend their winning streak.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Carlos Santana has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Martin Perez has used his sinker 6.1% less often this season (34.7%) than he did last season (40.8%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  From last season to this one, Luis Arraez’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.6 mph to 87.6 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Martin Perez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Projected catcher Luis Campusano projects as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games (+12.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• David Peralta – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  David Peralta has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+25.00 Units / 132% ROI)