Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Reds vs Royals 5/26/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Kansas City Royals

On May 26, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Cincinnati Reds at Kauffman Stadium in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Royals currently sit at 29-25, enjoying an above-average season, while the Reds are struggling at 26-28, reflecting a below-average performance thus far.

In their last outing on May 25, the Royals secured a narrow 2-1 victory, showcasing their ability to grind out wins despite a lackluster offense ranked 26th in MLB. Conversely, the Reds faced a more challenging game, suffering an 11-8 defeat, which highlights their ongoing struggles.

Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for the Royals. Although he has a respectable ERA of 3.77 this season, advanced stats suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his 4.31 FIP, which is higher than his ERA. Lorenzen’s performance is projected to be average in terms of innings and earned runs, but he does struggle with allowing hits and walks, which could be concerning against a Reds lineup ranked 12th in MLB.

Nick Martinez, starting for the Reds, has been solid this year with a strong ERA of 3.43. However, his low strikeout rate of 18.7% may not be advantageous against a Royals offense that ranks 3rd in the league for fewest strikeouts. Additionally, Martinez’s projected performance shows he may allow more earned runs and hits than usual, which could play into the Royals’ hands.

With the Royals’ bullpen ranked 10th in MLB, they have a distinct advantage late in games. The betting odds reflect a close matchup, with the Royals holding a moneyline of -120, suggesting they have a slight edge. As both teams look to turn their seasons around, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for the Royals to capitalize on the Reds’ recent woes.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Nick Martinez’s 83rd percentile BB% (5.7% this year) displays his favorable control skills.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future walks is past walks.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Matt McLain is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Garrett Hampson, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Michael Lorenzen is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.1-mph mark last year has fallen off to 85.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 37 games (+18.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1500/-50000)
  Kyle Isbel has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games at home (+9.00 Units / 150% ROI)