Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Reds vs Cubs 6/1/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field on June 1, 2025, it’s an essential matchup in the National League Central. The Cubs are enjoying a strong season with a record of 36-22 and are coming off a shutout victory against the Reds, winning 2-0 on May 31. Conversely, the Reds sit at 29-30, experiencing what can be described as an average season.

The Cubs will send Jameson Taillon to the mound, who has been inconsistent despite a decent ERA of 3.86. His Power Rankings slot him as the 130th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is below average. However, in his last start, Taillon performed admirably, allowing just one earned run over six innings, suggesting he could be trending in the right direction.

On the other side, Nick Martinez will take the hill for the Reds. Martinez boasts a strong ERA of 3.48 and ranks as the 67th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is a positive sign for the Reds. He has been effective in limiting walks, which may be crucial against the Cubs’ high-walk offense, ranked 3rd in MLB.

Offensively, the Cubs are thriving with a 3rd best ranking in MLB, showcasing their ability to drive in runs and hit for average. Their offensive prowess is bolstered by a strong performance from their best hitter, who has been on fire lately with a .364 batting average over the past week. The projections indicate that the Cubs should score around 3.85 runs today, while the Reds may struggle to reach a low implied team total of 3.15 runs.

In this pivotal game, the Cubs look to leverage their strong hitting and home-field advantage against a Reds team that is yet to find its groove this season. Expect a closely contested matchup as both teams aim to gain momentum in the series.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Elly De La Cruz generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jameson Taillon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Jameson Taillon has gone to his cut-fastball 11.6% less often this year (13.4%) than he did last season (25%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Michael Busch is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 51 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.45 Units / 42% ROI)