Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Red Sox vs Yankees 6/6/25

Boston Red Sox

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face off against the Boston Red Sox on June 6, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees, sitting at 38-23, are having a great season and currently hold a strong position in the standings. In contrast, the Red Sox find themselves at 30-34, struggling to find consistency as they are well below average this year.

In their last game, the Yankees secured a convincing 4-0 victory, showcasing their dominant offense, which ranks as the 2nd best in MLB this season. The Yankees are projected to start Will Warren, who has had a rocky season with a 3-3 record and a 5.19 ERA. However, his 3.08 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting an improvement might be on the horizon. Warren had a disastrous outing in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs over just 1 inning, but he is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Walker Buehler, who has a 4-3 record and a 4.44 ERA. Buehler’s recent form has been shaky as well, having allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. With both pitchers in search of redemption, this matchup could see the Yankees capitalize on their offensive prowess against a struggling Red Sox pitching staff.

The Yankees are currently favored with a moneyline of -195, reflecting an implied team total of 5.18 runs, while the Red Sox are listed as underdogs at +165 with an implied total of 3.82 runs. Given the Yankees’ strong offensive rankings and the projections indicating they may outperform their implied total, this game presents an opportunity for bettors to consider New York as a solid pick.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Walker Buehler’s fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this season (93.1 mph) below where it was last year (95.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Trevor Story is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Boston Red Sox (24.9% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-most strikeout-prone team of batters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-185)
  Will Warren is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Aaron Judge’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 100.5-mph EV last season has fallen off to 98.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.72 Units / 21% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 25% ROI)