Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Nationals vs Dodgers 6/20/25

Washington Nationals

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Washington Nationals in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Dodger Stadium on June 20, 2025. The Dodgers are currently sitting at 46-30, enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals struggle at 31-44, marking a disappointing performance thus far. In their last outing, the Dodgers fell to the Nationals by a score of 5-3, a result that highlights the challenges facing Los Angeles despite their impressive record.

Both teams will send left-handed pitchers to the mound, with Clayton Kershaw projected to start for the Dodgers and MacKenzie Gore taking the hill for the Nationals. Kershaw, ranked 76th among starting pitchers according to advanced metrics, has shown flashes of brilliance this season, boasting a 2-0 record and a solid 3.25 ERA. However, his projected performance suggests he may allow 2.3 earned runs over approximately 5.4 innings, indicating a potential vulnerability. Conversely, Gore, ranked 36th, has had a more challenging season with a 3-6 record but an impressive 2.89 ERA. His ability to limit walks (6.2 BB%) may counteract the Dodgers’ potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB in both batting average and home runs.

The Dodgers’ offense, featuring their best hitter with a remarkable 1.009 OPS, is expected to capitalize on Gore’s tendency to give up fly balls, especially given their league-leading home run total of 116. With a high implied team total of 4.61 runs, Los Angeles looks to rebound from their recent loss against a Nationals team that has struggled to find consistent offensive production, ranking 21st in MLB.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 94.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph decline from last season’s 95.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  James Wood has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.5-mph average to last season’s 96.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Andres Chaparro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Andres Chaparro hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Clayton Kershaw is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all parks — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball batters like Miguel Rojas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like MacKenzie Gore.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Compared to their .351 overall projected rate, the .338 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup considerably missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+12.35 Units / 40% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.04 Units / 23% ROI)
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+155/-205)
  Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 59% ROI)