Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Dodgers vs D-Backs 9/2/24

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 2, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight in the National League West standings. The Dodgers currently sit atop the division with an impressive record of 82-55, while the Diamondbacks are solidly in contention as they hold a record of 77-60. Both teams have been performing well, but the Dodgers have undoubtedly had the edge this season.

In their previous game, the Dodgers secured a decisive victory, further solidifying their position as the 3rd best offense in MLB. Led by a powerful lineup, Los Angeles boasts a remarkable home run ranking, sitting 3rd in the league. In contrast, while Arizona’s offense ranks 2nd overall, they have been more reliant on contact, as reflected in their 16th place ranking for home runs.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill. Despite being ranked 58th among starting pitchers, Rodriguez has had a decent start to the season with a 2-0 record, although his 5.06 ERA raises concerns. Contrastingly, Dodgers’ Jack Flaherty is having a fantastic year, boasting a 3.07 ERA and ranking 39th among his peers.

Rodriguez is known for his low walk rate, and he’ll need that control against a Dodgers lineup that excels at drawing free passes. Meanwhile, the projections indicate that both pitchers may struggle with hits allowed, which could play a pivotal role in the game’s outcome. Ultimately, while the Diamondbacks are positioned as underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied team total of 3.96 runs, they’ll be relying heavily on Rodriguez’s ability to keep the Dodgers’ powerful offense at bay.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ranking in the 90th percentile, Jack Flaherty compiled a 13.6% Swinging Strike percentage this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.2-mph to 100.2-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Today, Mookie Betts is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (90th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Eduardo Rodriguez has recorded 17.4 outs per start since the start of last season, placing in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson’s true offensive ability to be a .353, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .048 difference between that figure and his actual .401 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .314, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 95 games (+22.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+130/-165)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+12.35 Units / 33% ROI)