Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Cardinals vs Mets 4/19/25

St. Louis Cardinals

@

New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field on April 19, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight in the standings. The Mets are currently enjoying a strong season with a 13-7 record, while the Cardinals sit at 9-11, struggling to find their footing. In their last game, the Mets showcased their dominance with a solid victory, putting them in a prime position to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Kodai Senga takes the mound for New York, boasting an impressive 2-1 record and an outstanding ERA of 1.06. Despite his superb ERA, his 3.44 xFIP suggests that Senga might have been a bit fortunate, hinting at a potential decline in future performances. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which reflects his ability to limit scoring.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has a 1-1 record and a respectable ERA of 3.93. However, his 2.61 xFIP indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting room for improvement. Liberatore is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, which could put pressure on a Cardinals offense ranked 5th in MLB this season.

The Mets’ offense, while average in overall performance with a ranking of 19th, has been highlighted by their best hitter, who has been productive this season. In contrast, the Cardinals’ offense, featuring one of the best hitters in the league with a batting average of .380, looks to exploit any weaknesses in the Mets’ pitching.

With the Mets favored and a high game total set at 9.0 runs, this game promises to be an intriguing battle, especially as the Cardinals aim to overcome their recent struggles against a talented Mets squad.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a notable advantage over flyball bats, Matthew Liberatore and his 42.7% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this outing facing 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Victor Scott II has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 8.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 65% of the time, placing in the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-200)
  The 5th-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 45% ROI)
• Jose Azocar – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Jose Azocar has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)