Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Angels vs Twins 9/11/24

Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on September 11, 2024, they find themselves in a favorable position, sitting at 77-68 this season. The Twins have been performing well, highlighted by their recent victory over the Angels, where they won decisively with a score of 10-5. In contrast, the Angels have struggled, currently holding a 60-85 record, marking them as one of the worst teams in the league.

Zebby Matthews is projected to take the mound for the Twins. Despite an ERA of 7.36, which ranks as horrible, he has shown signs of potential, with an xFIP of 4.13, suggesting he has been unlucky and could improve. In his last outing, he pitched 5 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, which was an uneventful start. However, the projections indicate he will average 5.1 strikeouts and allow 2.4 earned runs today, which aligns with an average performance.

On the other side, Jack Kochanowicz will be starting for the Angels. With an ERA of 4.89, he has been slightly below average, but his xERA of 6.08 indicates he may be due for a rough outing. His last start saw him yield 3 earned runs over 6 innings, but with projections suggesting he will allow 3.1 earned runs today, he may struggle against a potent Twins lineup that ranks 11th in MLB.

With the Twins displaying a strong offense and a decent pitching matchup, they are favored with a moneyline of -190 and an implied team total of 4.89 runs. Meanwhile, the Angels, facing uphill odds, come in as underdogs with a projected team total of just 3.61 runs. The leading MLB projection system suggests the Twins are set to score around 5.49 runs, further solidifying their status as favorites in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-185)
  With 7 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jack Kochanowicz will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Matt Thaiss is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Niko Kavadas, Mickey Moniak, Jordyn Adams).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 75 games (+5.20 Units / 6% ROI)
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)
  Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)