Betting Odds and Bets for White Sox vs Angels – 9/16/24

Chicago White Sox

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on September 16, 2024, both teams are enduring dismal seasons, with the Angels sitting at 60-89 and the White Sox at a staggering 35-115. Despite the lack of playoff hopes, this matchup still holds interest as it features two struggling squads vying for pride in the final weeks of the season.

Reid Detmers, the Angels’ projected starter, is looking to bounce back from a tough year—his ERA stands at an underwhelming 5.64, making him the 125th best starter in MLB per advanced metrics, which indicates below-average performance. However, Detmers has shown signs of potential, evidenced by an xFIP of 3.80, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this year. He faces a White Sox offense struggling to generate runs, ranking dead last in the league with a mere 3.43 runs projected for this game.

Jonathan Cannon, the White Sox’s starter, also faces challenges, with a record of 3-10 and an average ERA of 4.56. The odds appear to favor the Angels, who are the betting favorites at -185, with an implied team total of 4.57 runs, hinting at a possible scoring advantage.

Nolan Schanuel has been the Angels’ bright spot recently, showcasing stellar performance over the last week with a .476 batting average and 1.179 OPS. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s best hitter, Gavin Sheets, has been decent but not enough to change the narrative of a team that ranks 30th in offensive production.

Given the matchup of Detmers against a low-powered White Sox lineup, the Angels could leverage this opportunity to grab a victory and perhaps turn their season’s atmosphere around, at least momentarily.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jonathan Cannon’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (61.3% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Los Angeles’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Miguel Vargas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Chuckie Robinson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Chuckie Robinson ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-195)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Matt Thaiss is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Charles Leblanc, Niko Kavadas, Jordyn Adams).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+5.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 67 away games (+5.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Zach Neto has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 31 games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)