Betting Odds and Bets for Padres vs Phillies – 7/2/25

San Diego Padres

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park on July 2, 2025, for the first game of a double-header. The Phillies currently hold a strong 50-35 record, positioning themselves well in their division. In contrast, the Padres are slightly behind at 45-39. This matchup is critical as both teams are looking to gain momentum in the tightly contested National League.

In their previous game, the Padres fell to the Phillies, further complicating their pursuit of playoff positioning. The Phillies are enjoying a solid run, showcasing a powerful offense that ranks 9th overall in MLB, along with an impressive 8th in team batting average. Their ability to produce runs has been a key factor in their success this season.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to send Mick Abel to the hill. While Abel boasts a respectable 3.47 ERA, he ranks just 298th among MLB starting pitchers, indicating some underlying struggles. His projections suggest he may struggle today, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched and an average of 3.1 earned runs allowed. Meanwhile, Nick Pivetta, the Padres’ starter, has been performing at a much higher level, with a 3.36 ERA and a ranking of 62nd among starting pitchers. Pivetta has the advantage in experience, having started 16 games this season with an 8-2 record.

The projections favor the Phillies’ offense against Pivetta’s low-walk approach, which could neutralize their high-walk capability. With both teams having a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the potential for a high-scoring affair. As the game unfolds, the Phillies’ ability to capitalize on their offensive strengths will be pivotal against a Padres team that has struggled with power this season.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Dylan Cease has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.