Betting Odds and Bets for Guardians vs Royals – 7/27/25

Cleveland Guardians

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on July 27, 2025, both teams are hovering around .500, with the Royals sitting at 51-54 and the Guardians at 52-52. This American League Central matchup is crucial for both teams, who are looking to make a move in the standings. After last night’s game, where the Royals lost 5-3 to the Guardians, the stakes are raised as they seek redemption in the series’ third contest.

Kansas City will send left-hander Noah Cameron to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 2.61 ERA, ranking him as the 88th best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. However, the projections suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 3.84, indicating potential regression. Cameron’s average projections of 5.2 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs, and low strikeout rate of 4.7 may not suffice against a Guardians lineup that, despite its struggles, ranks 20th in homers.

Cleveland counters with Joey Cantillo, also a lefty, who sports a respectable 3.91 ERA. Cantillo’s high strikeout rate of 29.5% is noteworthy, especially against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd lowest in the league for strikeouts. However, Cantillo is also prone to walks, which could be problematic since the Royals are the least patient team in the league.

Offensively, the Royals rank 26th overall, while the Guardians fare even worse at 28th. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets see this as a closely contested affair, favoring the Royals with a moneyline of -130. The projections lean towards a better performance from Kansas City, particularly with their best hitter recently recording a stellar .360 batting average and 1.305 OPS over the past week. This game serves as a pivotal moment for both teams as they look to assert themselves in the division.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Joey Cantillo has recorded 13.7 outs per outing since the start of last season, checking in at the 6th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Johnathan Rodriguez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Noah Cameron has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed batters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Salvador Perez will hold the platoon advantage against Joey Cantillo in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 98 games (+30.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 42 away games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+345/-510)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+14.10 Units / 201% ROI)