Betting Odds and Bets for D-Backs vs Mets – 5/1/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

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New York Mets

On May 1, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field for the third game of their series. The Mets are currently riding high with a 21-10 record, showcasing a solid season, while the Diamondbacks sit at 16-14, having performed above average. In their previous matchup, the Mets narrowly fell to the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3, a result that may fuel their desire for a comeback.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets, bringing an impressive 1.26 ERA and a 3-1 record this season. Although Senga’s 3.96 xFIP suggests he might not maintain this level of performance, he has shown the ability to limit earned runs, projecting to allow just 2.2 earned runs on average today. His strikeout potential of 6.1 batters per game adds to his appeal as a reliable starter.

On the other side, Zac Gallen will start for the Diamondbacks. Despite being ranked as the 46th best starting pitcher in MLB, Gallen’s 5.57 ERA indicates struggles this season, compounded by a 1-4 record. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at a potential rebound.

Offensively, the Mets rank 7th in MLB, bolstered by their best hitter, who has a stellar OPS of 1.132. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast the 4th best offense, with their leading player hitting for power, including 9 home runs this season.

With the Mets favored at -155 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.39 runs, they appear poised to capitalize on their home advantage. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive matchup. As both teams look to assert themselves, this game could have significant implications for their early-season momentum.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Zac Gallen has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 5.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Josh Naylor may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks bats as a group have been among the best in the majors this year (4th-) in regard to their 90.3-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has used his secondary offerings a lot this year: 61.7% of the time, grading out in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Extreme groundball bats like Juan Soto generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zac Gallen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Tim Tawa – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Tim Tawa has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)