Betting Odds and Bets for D-Backs vs Giants – 5/12/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to Oracle Park for the first game of a pivotal series on May 12, 2025. The Giants currently sit atop the National League West with a record of 24-17, showcasing a strong season, while the Diamondbacks trail with a more average 21-20 record. Both teams are looking to bounce back after losses in their last games, with the Giants falling to the Los Angeles Dodgers 7-6 and the Diamondbacks suffering a significant defeat against the San Diego Padres, losing 8-1.

On the mound, the Giants are projected to start Justin Verlander, who has had a challenging season with a 0-2 record and a 4.50 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, Verlander’s performance has been inconsistent; he projects to allow an average of 2.6 earned runs while struggling with hits and walks. In contrast, the Diamondbacks will counter with Merrill Kelly, who has a better Win/Loss record at 3-2 and an above-average ERA of 4.09. However, Kelly’s 4.93 xERA suggests he may have been fortunate to achieve those numbers, indicating potential challenges ahead.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 5th in the league, boasting a powerful lineup that has hit 54 home runs this season. This strength could pose significant challenges for Verlander, especially given his tendency to allow fly balls. Meanwhile, the Giants offense ranks 20th, struggling particularly in batting average at 25th. With the Giants’ bullpen holding the top spot in Power Rankings, they may have an opportunity to capitalize if they can keep the game close early.

Given that betting markets have the Giants at +105 with a projected team total of 3.86 runs, there’s potential value there against a Diamondbacks team that is slightly favored at -125 and an average implied team total of 4.14 runs. As the season progresses, this match-up promises to be a closely contested game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Merrill Kelly (42.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 4 GB hitters in San Francisco’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Justin Verlander’s slider percentage has jumped by 11.9% from last year to this one (19.3% to 31.2%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Wilmer Flores’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 84.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 74.7-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco’s 15.9° launch angle (an advanced metric to study the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the majors this year: #3 overall.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.15 Units / 48% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+6.10 Units / 19% ROI)